Which world cities will see the highest price rises in 2024? 

Geopolitical uncertainty, high inflation, interest-rate rises – 2023 was quite the year. Yet for all this global volatility, residential property in cities defied expectations and remained resilient. In fact, many prime markets saw prices rise. So what’s next for property values in the world’s biggest cities?

The latest Savills Prime Residential Index: World Cities report predicts that many prime city markets will experience a soft landing in 2024, rather than a painful downturn. Looking at the positives, inflationary pressures should abate, rental values are expected to rise and central banks may lower rates.

Nothing upsets a market like an election, however, and almost 70 are slated to take place in 2024, accounting for more than 40% of the global population. “We are expecting lower, but still positive, levels of capital value growth,” says Jelena Cvjetkovic, director of Savills Global Residential.

While average prime residential growth in the 30 World Cities listed will slow from 2.2% in 2023 to 0.6% in 2024, some cities will perform better than others. Sydney and Dubai are expected to lead the pack, with both continuing to benefit from increases in their high-net-worth populations. The imbalance between supply and demand is expected to push up Sydney property prices by between 8% and 9.9%.

Record migration is adding to high levels of demand for prime homes, along with growing interest from domestic buyers, while increased construction costs are limiting the creation of new-builds.

“Geographically confined between a harbour, beaches and mountains, Sydney has limited ability to expand. There’s a perpetual undersupply of prime housing,” says Chris Orr, director of residential for Savills Australia. “Demand is mostly domestic, with the next wave of prime offshore buyers forecast to come from the Indian subcontinent.”

Dubai, by contrast, owes its capital-value appreciation to its status as a Middle Eastern hub. The balmy climate, a relatively low cost of living and attractive taxation rates and visa options underpin its appeal to high-net-worth buyers, while rapid GDP growth and a dynamic business environment draw investment. Capital values in the emirate grew by 17.4% last year, but this figure is forecast to slow to between 4% and 5.9% over the course of 2024, in a return to a more “normal” market.

Climate and lifestyle are also behind Cape Town’s move into the top five this year, leapfrogging Mumbai and Bangkok with predicted price rises of 2%-3.9%. Foreign currency buyers are capitalising on the value that it offers and the city is now the prime destination for affluent South Africans.

The vibrant Spanish cities of Barcelona and Madrid also rank high, with low levels of supply in these lifestyle locations expected to push prices up by 2%-3.9% in 2024. Investment in the Spanish capital comes primarily from Latin America and the US, while in Barcelona demand is led by French, Swiss and Benelux buyers, according to Pablo Balea, head of residential Barcelona for Savills Spain. “Europeans predominate at the top end, where purchases at €1m-plus are less affected by high interest rates,” he says.

With Barcelona hosting the America’s Cup in 2024, there has been an uptick in interest from US buyers. Let’s hope that the choppy seas of 2023 are now calming for all. 

Read the Savills Prime Residential Index: World Cities report in full

Watch Savills experts discuss the World Cities results

Pictures from top: a view of Cape Town, framed by the mountains (Getty); Gaudí’s Parc Güell in Barcelona (Getty); the suburb of Vaucluse on Sydney’s waterfront (Getty); and sunset over Gran Vía in Madrid (Alamy)